Russian air space violation, pressure on Israel, cracking down on immigrants, and a rock star ambassador

Hello Insiders! 

I took the weekend off, so you’re getting this update a little later than planned, but it is still packed full of news, analysis and dare I say it intrigue this week!

Finland is facing a potential constitutional crisis at the moment, over whether or not to recognise an independent Palestinian State. As you will remember, the President leads on foreign policy is but works hand-in-hand with the government to ensure smooth consensus. Until now, both President Stubb and PM Orpo’s coalition government have said they’ll recognise Palestine when the time is right.

Stubb has intimated that he doesn’t want to be on the wrong side of history (although, arguably, with three-quarters of United Nations members, including our Nordic and Baltic neighbours, already recognising a Palestinian State, Finland is already on the wrong side of history). Stubb doesn’t want to upset the Israelis because that would upset Donald Trump and the Americans. But if France or the UK comes out and recognises Palestine, which they very well might, Stubb’s hand could be forced. And that’s a problem: because inside the government, the far-right Finns Party and the religious Christian Democrats are very much against recognising Palestine, while the Swedish People’s Party is open to the idea, and Kokoomus would likely be split if it came to some sort of free vote.

So the theoretical question is: how could the President and his government continue to function if they support opposing foreign policy viewpoints? Finnish governments have fallen for much less than this in the recent past!

Anyway: that’s this week’s big headline from my perspective. I’ve got a look at the latest positions a bit further down below as well as all the stories - big and small - from the past week to help you better understand and navigate the world’s happiest nation.

Are you sitting comfortably? Then we’ll begin:

Insider briefing: Russia, Ukraine and national security

🇷🇺 Summoned. The Russian ambassador to Finland was summoned to the Foreign Ministry today (Monday) to explain why his country’s military jets apparently violated Finnish airspace recently.

“The ambassador was told that Finland takes the suspected territorial violation seriously," the ministry said in a statement.

✈️ Airspace. According to the Ministry of Defence, two Russian military aircraft are suspected of having violated Finnish airspace off the coast of Porvoo last Friday.

"We take the suspected territorial violation seriously and an investigation is ongoing," Minister of Defence Antti Häkkänen (NCP) said in the statement.

⛴️ Escorts. Russian naval vessels have begun escorting its ‘shadow fleet’ of oil tankers through the Gulf of Finland.

✈️ Drones. NATO’s largest unmanned reconnaissance drones are going to be based temporarily in Finland for some flight testing, moving from their usual base in Italy for the first time. They are the size of a passenger plane!

💥 Border. Finland is ‘preparing for the worst’ as Russia expands military presence near border, reports The Guardian. “Finland has said it expects Russia to further build up troops along their shared border when the war in Ukraine ends, after reports that Moscow had strengthened its military bases near the Nato frontier.”

🔵 The Finnish government is “taking steps to strengthen its defence”, according to Kokoomus MP Jarno Limnéll. “Our location and the changing security situation require credible, multi-layered defence. This means both our own readiness and deep cooperation with our allies. The government has made decisions that will strengthen Finland's security in the long term," Limnéll says, citing a pledge to raise defence spending to 3% of GDP and Finland’s readiness to leave the Ottawa Treaty on landmines.

🐞 Meanwhile MP Christoffer Ingo (SFP) says that Finland should raise its defence spending even higher, to 4% of GDP.

🌊 Little grey corvette. The first Pohjanmaa-class multi-purpose corvette for the Finnish Navy was launched at Rauma Marine Constructions (RMC) shipyard last week, as part of the ongoing plan to modernise the country’s naval assets. The Pohjanmaa-class corvettes are the largest surface combatants built for the Finnish Navy since the coastal defence ships Ilmarinen and Väinämöinen in the 1930s.

🔫 Conflict. Europe is on edge as Russia builds up forces on Finland’s border, writes Fortune. Could this frontier be the next conflict zone, the magazine asks.

🚁 Military. Hundreds of British troops, Apache helicopters, and rocket systems have been deployed to Finland as part of a major NATO operation, Exercise Northern Strike, marking a significant show of firepower on the alliance’s eastern flank.

🦌 Reindeer. “A fighter jet roaring through the grey sky breaks the tranquillity of a boreal forest in northern Finland, one more sign of a growing military presence that is challenging the ability of reindeer herders to exercise their livelihood”, writes AFP, and posing an interesting question…

📺 Video. Watch the full AFP video report here.

Inside the headlines

🍽️ Delivery. The Supreme Administrative Court ruled this week that delivery drivers should be considered as employees - a ruling that will potentially have a major impact on some of these bigger delivery companies operating in Finland like Foodora or Wolt.

“This decision shows that employer responsibilities cannot be circumvented by calling employees entrepreneurs when in fact it is an employment relationship”, says Jarkko Eloranta, Chairman of SAK, the trades union umbrella organisation.

🛂 Immigration. The government is going to start enforcing its new rules for immigrants in Finland from next month. It means that anyone in the country on a work-based residence visa who loses their job will have just three months to find a new job or else they’ll have to leave the country. Previously, there was a six-month rule in place. Just imagine if you get laid off just before Juhannus - it would be so much more difficult to find a new job in the same field over the summer considering how much Finland shuts down from Juhannus to August.

💰 Economy. The OECD has criticised the Finnish government for not doing enough to cut subsidies paid to businesses. Last year that amounted to about €8 billion in direct and indirect government subsidies to businesses. They managed to cut the figure by about €12 million but that’s not nearly enough for the OECD.

Finance Minister Riikka Purra (Finns) says that some subsidies are needed because of Finland’s special circumstances. “There are necessary supports there that take into account the fact that conditions in Finland are slightly more demanding in terms of geography, nature and distances than elsewhere,” she said in response to the OECD criticism.

🌊 Frozen. The Baltic Sea is now officially free from ice after another long winter, according to the Finnish Meteorological Institute FMI. The final fragile drift ice floes were holding out in the northern part of the Bay of Bothnia.

🎵 Eurovision. Finland’s public broadcaster Yle is joining other public broadcasters from around Europe to ask the European Broadcasting Union, which organises the annual Eurovision Song Contest, to take another look at the voting systems which can be open to manipulation when one person can cast 20 votes.

🏒🦁 Hockey. Finland crashed out of the ice hockey World Championships in Stockholm, following a defeat against the USA in the quarter-finals. That means the Lions have failed to make the medal playoffs and there is speculation about what it means for the team’s manager Antti Pennanen who seems to have the support of the country’s hockey chiefs for now - especially as they look ahead to next year’s Milan-Cortina Winter Olympics.

⚰️ Deaths. Preventable deaths cost Finland €8.35 billion euros in lost income annually – drugs, alcohol and suicides are at the top causes of the 235,000 lives lost prematurely each year. That’s according to new data from consulting firm FCG.

🛳️ Cruise. The world’s biggest cruise ship, Royal Caribbean’s Star of the Seas, left the construction Meyer Turku Shipyard where it was constructed for a two-week sea trial. If you want to see what it’s like on board this behemoth - which can have up to 10,000 passengers and crew on board, then this video is for you:

Insider politics

📊 Polls. The Social Democrats are rejoicing, the Finns Party commiserating, after the latest political opinion polling from Helsingin Sanomat showed Demarit increasing their popularity up to 25.3% while the National Coalition Party is in second place on 19.9% and the Centre Party is third on 15.3%. They’re all going to be happy their support is increasing, even marginally. Looking further down… the Finns Party is in freefall and losing more support down to 10.5%

🔵 Sari Essayah, the leader of the Christian Democrats, is bidding for another term at the helm of her party. She’s been the party leader since 2015.

💰 Opposition parties have submitted a motion of no confidence against the government over its handling of the economy - as debt balloons under this current administration. You’ll recall that Kokoomus ran on an election platform that positioned them very strongly as a safe pair of hands when it comes to economic issues.

🕵️ The Secretary General of Parliament, Antti Pelttari, is suspected of treason in addition to a crime of official misconduct. It relates to his previous job as head of SUPO the Finnish intelligence service. My reading of this is that it’s not “treason” as you might imagine, say, walking up to the Russian Embassy with a box of top secret documents. The charge seems to be related to something he may not have done to investigate another ex-SUPO officer who left the job and might have taken a classified document home.

🌈 Another day, another Finns Party scandal. This time a councillor in Turku has been rebuked for posting a video on social media showing an artist chanting a gender-minority slogan, cut with footage of a tank taking aim and firing. Even the local branch of the Finns Party was embarrassed by this, Yle reports.

Insider international

Here’s the continuation of all this week’s news from Finland about Israel and Palestine. Let’s start with a round-up of views and opinions held by folks in parliament, and as you’ll see here the government has started to use some of the toughest language yet about the situation in Gaza.

🇮🇱 Genocide? Foreign Minister Elina Valtonen (NCP) was on Yle’s A-Studio show last week, and was asked by presenter Seija Vaaherkumpu what else Israel's actions in Gaza could be other than genocide. And Valtonen answered: “Well, that’s it”. It’s as close as anyone in the Finnish government has got to actually saying the word “genocide” and when Valtonen was pressed about why the government doesn’t accuse Israel, she replied that Finland leaves the final judgments up to the international court.

👨‍👩‍👦‍👦 President Alexander Stubb and the government have condemned Israel's plan to forcibly transfer Gaza’s civilian population out of the area.

Prime Minister Petteri Orpo (NCP) told reporters in Turku on Monday that Finland needs an entity in Gaza that it can recognise, but that Hamas is not that entity.

🏛️ In a speech to parliament on Wednesday, Foreign Minister Valtonen again condemned the Hamas terror attacks and hostage taking in Israel on 7 October 2023, but also said, strongly: “No evil justifies collective punishment, actions that violate international law, cause widespread suffering among civilians.”

📢 Also on Wednesday, the Foreign Ministry summoned the Israeli ambassador to lodge an official protest after Israeli forces opened fire on a group of diplomats, including Finns, while they were on an official visit to the occupied West Bank.

🚫 Sanctions. One option open to the Finnish government, as Valtonen has mentioned, is to impose sanctions against individual Israeli government ministers. This is something Sweden is planning to do and the Finns seem to like the idea too.

🔴 Recognition. The Social Democrat MPs on the Foreign Affairs Committee in Parliament say that Finland must recognise Palestine “without delay.”

🇵🇸 Demarit. Chairperson of the Social Democrats Parliamentary Group Nasima Razmyar says that “Finland must not be among the last countries to recognize Palestine.”

🐞 Pressure. Former presidential candidate Eva Biaudet (SFP) says that it’s time to turn the pressure up on Israel: “The situation in Gaza is humanly incomprehensible. The number of dead is hard to even imagine. Almost 54,000 people and 15,000 children have been killed. A million children have been traumatised by the war. People's lives are threatened by bombs and famine if help does not arrive. There is a shortage of food, water and medical supplies.”

✒️ Petition. Some 1,600 Finnish researchers and academics have signed their names to a petition calling on the government to recognise Palestine as an independent state. They’re also appealing to Finland's foreign policy leadership to "immediately act by all reasonable means to end the genocide and ethnic cleansing in Gaza."

🇫🇮🇦🇽Nordics. The 8 Nordic heads of government are meeting in Turku at the moment, to discuss cooperation around competitiveness and societal security. The PMs of 🇸🇪 Sweden, 🇳🇴 Norway, 🇩🇰 Denmark, 🇮🇸 Iceland, 🇫🇴 Faroe Islands and 🇬🇱 Greenland are being hosted by Finland and Åland. 🇩🇪 The new German Chancellor Friedrich Merz is also visiting.

🇧🇾 Belarus. The government is planning new legislation to ban citizens of Belarus from buying property in Finland - along the same lines as the recent new law which bans Russians from buying properties.

🇹🇼🎸 Rock. Taiwan has just appointed Freddy Lim, 🇩🇪 the frontman of metal band Chthonic, as the country’s new ambassador to Finland. That should liven up the Helsinki diplomatic scene!

Thank you, kiitos, tack! 

This was an intense newsletter this week. And sorry it’s a bit later than usual but I was enjoying the weekend off! Should be back on schedule next Sunday.

Thanks for reading to the bitter end!

David