Sunday evening update: Finland's security in the spotlight

Hello Insiders! 

I’m doing something different for this week’s newsletter because there’s a lot happening in the world around us, at a bewildering pace, and sometimes it’s difficult to figure out how much we need to take in and process, or if indeed any of it matters in a Finland context.

I think we will look back on this week as a pivotal moment in history when the veil came down between Europe and the US and we saw clearly that the United States cannot currently be counted on as a reliable and trusted partner - especially when it comes to security.

And that’s obviously very important for Finland, which shares the EU’s longest border with Russia, as well as a maritime border.

One of the main reasons (arguably the main reason) Finland joined NATO was to benefit from Article V which guarantees that if one NATO Member State is attacked, the rest will come to its collective defence. The US has put that very much in doubt this week, and seems to want to sideline Europe (and maybe even Kyiv) when trying to carve out a deal with Vladimir Putin to end Russia’s full-scale war in Ukraine. European leaders, including in Finland, weren’t quite sure how to react to this at first because it seemed like such an outlandish suggestion but over the course of a few days they sort of swung into action to make it clear that Ukrainian security is Finnish security and is European security.

On Monday - tomorrow - French President Emmanuel Macron has invited European leaders for an emergency summit in Paris to discuss the war in Ukraine, and the new US position on peace talks and European security. There’s no doubt these are crisis talks spurred on by America’s almost unprecedented pronouncements this week. Finland and the other Nordic and Baltic countries will be represented by Denmark on behalf of the NB8 group.

The NB8 released a statement on Friday saying “We stand fully and firmly behind Ukraine. Ukraine must be able to prevail against Russia’s war of aggression, to ensure a just and lasting peace. The outcome of the war will have fundamental and long-lasting effects on European and transatlantic security.” (Note: The NB8 has been flexing its muscles a bit more recently when it comes to coordination, so I’ll take a look at that in a future newsletter edition!)

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Helsinki University’s ‘woke’ advert attacked

So where do I start? How about a tangible look right on our doorstep at the Trump administration’s backlash against anything perceived to be “woke” or “liberal” ie: anything connected with equality, diversity, protecting the environment, LGBTQ rights and even women’s rights (please don’t consider this an exhaustive list!)

This week Hufvudstadsbladet reported that the US Embassy in Helsinki has instructed Helsinki University to remove certain words from its call for applicants to study in America on a prestigious Fulbright Scholarship. Among the words are “equal rights” and “climate change” which seem pretty innocuous to the majority of people in Finland where equality has been such a basic pillar of Finnish society since even before independence.

Munich Security Conference

Next, let’s go to Germany where the annual Munich Security Conference has been taking place, and which attracted a high level of participation from Finland’s leadership, other politicians and the military.

Alarm bells started ringing very loudly on Friday, when US Vice President JD Vance gave a speech and “laid bare the collapse of the transatlantic alliance” while taking potshots at Europe over free speech issues, immigration and democracy.

This prompted an outpouring of support for European values, relatively mild Finnish criticism of the US, and strong allyship with Ukraine on display.

President Alex Stubb met with Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Munich and said any negotiations need to be on Ukraine’s terms; but he also described Vance’s speech as confusing.

Stubb also spoke to journalists and outlined his three-stage process for a ceasefire in Ukraine: First comes a phase where Ukraine is given more weapons, and sanctions are tightened against Russia so that Kyiv can begin any negotiations from a position of strength.

Secondly, there would be a ceasefire monitored by international observers; and then thirdly would be actual long-term peace negotiations which would deal with issues like Ukraine’s security and any territorial issues.

Stubb also said in Munich that if Russia continues its attacks, then Ukraine should be offered NATO membership (something that neither Washington nor Moscow wants).

Appearing at a press conference with PM Petteri Orpo (NCP) and Foreign Minister Elina Valtonen (NCP), President Stubb said “We have one message for the Americans. It is not worth looking for an ally in Russia to contain China, because Putin and Russia will betray you anyway,” which is the most bold way Stubb as a consumate diplomat can possibly phrase it.

Foreign Minister Elina Valtonen gave an interview with an American television channel and said “the free world should be united” in defending against autocrats and dictators. (Not sure if she includes Donald Trump in the ‘autocrat’ category!)

Valtonen says Europe and Ukraine have to go into any negotiations from a position of strength. “If we go into negotiations by giving Putin everything he has wanted, then we will not be strong.”

She also told journalists on Friday that the US position on Ukraine is confrontational and challenging for its allies.

Finns Party. Praise for Vance’s speech among Finnish politicians came from the far-right. Finns Party leader Riikka Purra called it “a great speech” while the party’s Parliamentary Group leader MP Jani Mäkelä also rather enjoyed what Vice President Vance had to say, and criticised Elina Valtonen: “I would hope that the Foreign Minister will think more carefully about her speeches in the future.” However in an interview with MTV Uutiset, Purra later described Donald Trump’s friendly overtures towards Russia as “very worrying.”

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More Munich reaction

Former Finnish PM Sanna Marin (SDP) called the Munich Security Conference a “wake-up call for Europe.” Marin, who now works for ex-British PM Tony Blair in a lobbying role, wrote on Instagram that “the messages from the US political leadership at the conference were clear and grim: Europe can no longer rely on transatlantic value-based cooperation and support, and Europe will not be at the negotiating table where its future and security are decided.”

[Note: Marin also announced this week that she’s got a new book coming out in English later this year, so expect even more visibility from her than we’ve seen so far - if such a thing is even possible - as she does the promo and marketing rounds]

Green MEP Ville Niinistö said: “Instead of JD Vance coming to Munich to support democracies against Russian authoritarianism, he fully supported Russia’s election interference through Chinese TikTok in the Romanian elections and the most Putinist party in Europe the AfD. This is what the hell is going on right now.

MEP Li Andersson, the former Left Alliance leader and the biggest vote-winner in last year’s European Parliament elections, wrote an editorial in Kansan Uutiset newspaper and said: "There is one thing I agree with the Trump administration: Europe cannot be dependent on the United States" and said Europe must set a goal for reducing its dependence on America. Andersson also advocated for Europe to set up its own “European NATO” to take over responsibility for security in the region.

Social Democrat Parliamentary Group leader Tytti Tuppurainen has also been in Munich at the security conference this weekend. She concluded on Sunday that “Europe must act.”

“Within days EU together with UK and Norway must draw a roadmap for Europe’s defence. Within weeks the financing commitments and planning guidelines for rearmament of Europe must be agreed upon. Within months the rearmament project must be started,” the Oulu MP wrote on her Instagram Stories.

Analysts and Editorials

There’s been no shortage of opinions and columns written in Finnish media and by experts this week. Everyone has something to say on the USA, Donald Trump, the insecurity caused by some of the things his top officials have proclaimed, and the way Europe was blindsided by the idea of bringing Vladimir Putin back into the limelight at peace talks in Saudi Arabia that might exclude both Europe and Ukraine.

Here’s a sample:

Edward Hunter Christie is a Senior Research Fellow at the Finnish Institute for International Affairs FIIA in Helsinki. He says that US Vice President JD Vance’s speech in Munich “was neither spontaneous nor calculated insult. It was a political attack on the security of Europe.” He’s written more at his Substack.

An editorial column in Helsingin Sanomat said that Europe must now find a common voice to deal with the USA and to support Ukraine.

A column at MTV Uutiset says “from now on, almost 80 years of transatlantic cooperation will be nothing more than a memory” while calling President Trump “Putin’s lapdog.”

Iltalehti’s Political Editor Lauri Nurmi writes from Munich that “the emergency meeting called by Emmanuel Macron speaks of democratic Europe's desire to take its destiny into its own hands. We must learn from the mistake of Munich in 1938 so that we do not bow down to Putin.”

Even Amcham Finland, the American Chamber of Commerce in Finland which is normally studiously politically agnostic has turned critical of President Trump’s plans to slap tariffs on countries (or groups of countries) that he wants to punish, saying this week that “protectionism is not the pathway to economic growth or stability,” and that the organisation “echoes the concerns raised by the broader business community, emphasizing that tariffs create unnecessary barriers, inflate costs for businesses and consumers alike, and disrupt global supply chains.”

Thank you, kiitos, tack!

Thanks for reading all the way to the end of this Finland Insider newsletter.

With hindsight, I should have fired out a regular round-up and analysis of the weekly news on Friday, and then done this as a stand-alone wrap of all the action from the Munich Security Conference this weekend where it had an impact on Finland. I’ll try to come to that conclusion faster, next time!

Have a great week, and catch you next weekend. I hope the coming days are less stressful and tumultuous than the last few days have been in terms of news!

David